1) 발표자: 박병진

2) 학술대회명: AGU Annual Meeting 2024

3) 발표 주제: Optimizing Heat Wave Adaptation Pathways Considering the Effectiveness and Citizen Preferences of Adaptation Strategies for Decision Support

4) 발표 내용

Heat waves caused by industrialization and global warming are causing numerous problems, and climate change makes them even more serious. To solve this problem, various countries and local governments are implementing heat wave adaptation policies. However, top-down climate change adaptation policies, which are planned and implemented by central governments or higher-level organizations, may be inefficient as they may not fully reflect the needs of citizens, who are actual users. In addition, uncertainty due to the complex nature of climate change puts a burden on decision makers in adaptation planning.
In this study, we propose optimal pathways that consider the trade-off between citizens' preferences and adaptation effects using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. This approach provides a flexible framework for responding to the uncertainty of climate change while reflecting citizens' preferences. A survey was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the preferences for the six adaptation facilities: street trees, green roofs, green walls, artificial shade structures, cool roofs, and cooling fog, which are used as heat wave adaptation strategies in Korea. And, respondents were clustered based on sociological factors such as age and gender. Through this, future preferences are set as one purpose based on the estimated population information. In addition, the temperature reduction effect of each adaptation facility according to the unit capacity was investigated and used to set the adaptation effect objectives. This approach is expected to help decision-makers make more practical and adaptable policy decisions, which will ultimately increase the effectiveness of heat wave mitigation and increase citizen satisfaction.